US President Donald Trump has raised hopes of an end to Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza, laying out a 20-point peace plan that has found rare support from Muslim and Arab nations seeking to end the suffering of Palestinians in the devastated enclave. 

Trump’s peace plan aims to form a transitional governance led by “a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee”, which will be overseen and supervised by the ‘Board of Peace’, an international transitional body chaired by the US President. 

There will be other members and heads of state, including former UK PM Tony Blair.

While the plan has pledged a phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, it will still allow Israeli military presence in the enclave.

Trump's Gaza plan reflects the latest international attempt “to fill a governance vacuum with a structure that looks credible to international actors and funders, while keeping Hamas excluded and the Palestinian Authority at arm’s length until it completes reforms,” says Andreas Krieg, associate professor at King's College in the United Kingdom.

According to Krieg, the only short-term resolution for ensuring stability in Gaza is the formation of a technocratic transitional governance backed by regional and international stakeholders. 

“But its success depends on two things: that it is genuinely temporary, and that it leads to a clearly defined political horizon,” Krieg tells TRT World.

Krieg warns if the plan does not come up with “a rigid timeline”, it might turn into “another semi-permanent trusteeship, foreign in character and fragile in legitimacy”, which could lead to a trust gap between the transitional body and Palestinians. 

Palestinian response

The plan requires Hamas to respond within 72 hours after the Netanyahu government accepts the proposal. Netanyahu, who held a press conference with Trump on Monday, stated that his government has accepted it.

The Palestinian Authority (PA), which the plan envisioned reforming to govern Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem, responded positively to Trump’s 20-point peace proposal, as did several leading Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and the UAE, along with Muslim countries such as Türkiye and Indonesia.

The PA stated that it aims to form "a modern, democratic and unarmed state that adheres to pluralism and the peaceful transfer of power," pledging to move toward positive and constructive relations with the US and all other parties. 

Dr Mahjoob Zweiri, a non-resident senior fellow at the Doha-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs, described the plan as “not new”, adding that it is just another version of old proposals similar to Trump’s first-term Abraham Accords.

“It’s not perfect and it’s not something that will make Palestinians and everyone supporting them happy,” Zweiri tells TRT World, pointing at the elusive promises of Palestinian self-determination in the 20-point plan. 

But at the end of the day, this proposal can help end the war, he adds. 

Zweiri sees three positive sides of the plan: a possibility to end the Palestinian ethnic cleansing, the return of UN and international humanitarian organisations to Gaza, and an end to the Israeli far-right groups’ demand to reoccupy the Palestinian enclave. 

While Palestinians suffered tens of thousands of casualties since Israel’s war on Gaza after October 7, 2023, the country has lost a lot of credibility as its conduct of the Gaza war has turned the Jewish state into a pariah entity with a genocidal record, according to Zweiri.  

The Hamas resistance group may show flexibility toward Trump’s plan, as its priority, shared by other pro-Palestinian groups, is to end the genocide and Israeli control in Gaza, Zweiri says. 

However, he warns of uncertainties surrounding the plan’s proposed gradual Israeli withdrawal, noting, “Nobody knows what will happen in between.”

But Krieg says he is not sure that Hamas will accept the plan as it requires the group’s dissolution and disarmament, ending its rule over Gaza. 

While Zweiri believes that Hamas, some of whose leaders previously signalled that the group does not want to rule Gaza, is “serious not to be part of any governance body”, he also notes that the resistance organisation can not “disappear overnight”. 

The disarmament matter will be a tough issue, he adds. “Look at Lebanon,” he says, referring to the treacherous road the state faces over Hezbollah’s disarmament. 

Uncertainties loom large 

In the absence of a credible commitment to full Israeli withdrawal and a roadmap towards statehood, “the plan risks managing the violence rather than resolving it,” says Krieg.

Palestinian reactions to Trump’s plan are likely to be “sceptical at best”, says Krieg, pointing out that many would remember the Oslo process, which promised statehood but rather delivered prolonged occupation and settlement expansion. 

“The presence of Tony Blair and the central role of the United States reinforce suspicions, since both are widely mistrusted,” he adds. 

He feels that a permanent solution to the long-running impasse would be possible only if most Palestinians do not “view the arrangement as imposed rather than owned”.