Kazim AlamIndia and Greece are deepening their military and strategic cooperation, a move threatening to upend the regional balance of power.
Against the backdrop of potential arms deals, analysts view the warming India-Greece relations as a direct response to Ankara’s growing influence in both South Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean, a geographic region encompassing countries like Türkiye, Greece, Syria, Lebanon, and Israel.
Dr Ahmet Keser, a professor at Türkiye’s Hasan Kalyoncu University, tells TRT World that the India-Greece rapprochement should be seen as a calculated strategy by Athens to counter Ankara.
“One of the core strategies consistently followed by Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration is to strengthen relations with countries that are either experiencing tensions with Türkiye or have the potential for such tensions,” he says, while pointing to Greece’s historical pattern of aligning with Türkiye’s rivals, like Israel.
For India, Keser argues, the motivation is equally strategic: A response to Türkiye’s support for Pakistan during the brief but intense four-day war in May 2025.
India’s outreach to Greece as well as Greek-administered Cyprus has taken on new urgency.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rare visit to Greek-administered Cyprus in June, followed by the Indian navy’s joint exercises with Greece, has been interpreted in Ankara as a deliberate provocation.
“Such visits can hardly be considered a coincidence,” Keser says, suggesting that Modi’s trip to Greek-administered Cyprus a month after India’s aerial clash with Pakistan was a “response to the position Türkiye took during the India-Pakistan war”.
It was a signal to deter future Turkish involvement in South Asian conflicts, he adds.
Mushahid Hussain Sayed, a foreign affairs expert who previously served as Pakistan’s federal minister and long-time senator, tells TRT World that India’s move is driven by “animus towards Türkiye” due to Ankara’s strategic partnership with Islamabad.
“Türkiye and Pakistan have common positions on Palestine, Greek-administered Cyprus, and Kashmir,” Sayed says, noting that these stances clash with the interests of the “Indo-Israeli Axis”.
He argues that India’s military drills with Greece are a “symbolic response” to the substantive defence cooperation between Türkiye and Pakistan, which includes Türkiye selling Pakistan arms and ammunition worth more than $5 million in 2024.
Both Greek and Indian media have reported that New Delhi is offering Athens its Long-Range Land Attack Cruise Missile, with a range of 1,000–1,500 kilometres.
The potential sales of these cruise missiles can upend the balance of power in the Aegean, where Türkiye and Greece have longstanding disputes over maritime boundaries and airspace.
Analysts from India, however, strongly disagree with the notion that New Delhi’s overtures in the Eastern Mediterranean are aimed at hurting Turkish interests.
Teiborlang T Kharsyntiew, a professor of European studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, tells TRT World that the historical and economic underpinnings of India-Greece relations are the actual driving force behind the warming ties between the two nations.
“India and Greece trace their relations back to the sixth century BCE,” Kharsyntiew says.
Despite Greece’s NATO membership and India’s support for the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War, the two countries still maintained good relations, he says.
Drawing attention to Greece’s support for India’s bid for a permanent UN Security Council seat and its refusal to condemn India’s 1998 nuclear tests, Kharsyntiew insists that the current alignment is driven by “civilisational foundations” and “geostrategic pragmatism”.
He says global supply chain vulnerabilities in the post-Covid era have pushed India and Greece to position themselves as reliable partners, where India is an “emerging global supplier” and Greece is a “gateway to Europe”.
IMEC: A ploy against Ankara?
Another flashpoint in the geopolitical chessboard is the so-called India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a proposed sea and rail trade link connecting India with the Middle East and Europe, announced at the G20 summit in Delhi in September 2023.
Türkiye, which sees itself as a critical hub for East-West trade, views the IMEC as a ploy to diminish its geostrategic role.
“The IMEC appears to be designed with the intent of bypassing and thereby reducing or eliminating Türkiye’s critical role in connecting Eastern and Western markets,” says Keser.
By emphasising the roles of India, Israel, and Greece, the IMEC seeks to diminish Türkiye’s influence over vital infrastructure like natural gas pipelines, he adds.
Sayed is even more blunt, saying the IMEC now lies “buried under the rubble and debris” of Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza.
“President Erdogan was the first world statesman to term IMEC impractical,” Sayed says, noting that the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia defence agreement has further weakened the perceived viability of the IMEC.
As India and Greece close ranks, the Eastern Mediterranean and South Asia are becoming increasingly intertwined.
Ankara’s deepening defence ties with Pakistan have strengthened Islamabad’s position, but at the same time drawn India closer to Greece and Greek-administered Cyprus.
“By forming alliances with actors such as Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration, India aims to distract Türkiye, balance its policies, and limit its potential support for Pakistan,” Keser says.
