Kazim AlamIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government, which depends heavily on ultranationalists and religious extremists, appears to be teetering amid his support for US President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan.
Far-right allies like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir have expressed reservations about the peace proposal that closes the door on Gaza’s reoccupation and a full annexation of the occupied West Bank by Israel.
Analysts say the ensuing political storm could topple Netanyahu’s government and possibly lead to early elections.
“If the Israeli government approves the plan, it could lead to the withdrawal of Smotrich’s Religious Zionism Party as well as Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power Party from the coalition,” Mtanes Shehadeh, a former Knesset member, tells TRT World.
“This may also trigger early elections, potentially as soon as the beginning of 2026,” he adds.
The peace plan, which demands Hamas’s disarmament, envisions a Trump-led Board of Peace to govern Gaza. It offers little in terms of a pathway to Palestinian statehood, a fact that some critics view as a thinly veiled extension of Israel’s occupation.
Yet even the modest concessions extended under the proposed plan seem too much for the extremists in Netanyahu’s coalition.
Shehadeh says the plan delivers partial Israeli victories – a military presence in Gaza and hostage returns – but thwarts far-right fantasies, such as the displacement of Gaza’s population or a complete occupation of the bombed-out enclave.
“All of this is rejected outright by the far-right,” he adds.
A fragile coalition, from the get-go
The fragility of Netanyahu’s coalition has been no secret. Formed after the 2022 elections with a slim Knesset majority, Netanyahu’s government has repeatedly faced defections and public outrage for multiple reasons.
Ultra-Orthodox parties like United Torah Judaism and Shas left the coalition in July over military draft disputes, leaving Netanyahu dependent on Smotrich’s Religious Zionism and Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power parties, which together hold 14 crucial seats.
Polls show Netanyahu’s Likud Party and its allies are trailing ahead of the scheduled October 2026 vote, with the Israeli premier’s handling of the Gaza war – which has killed over 66,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children – fuelling political unrest and demands for a snap election.
Gokhan Batu, a Levant studies analyst at the Ankara-based Center for Middle Eastern Studies, tells TRT World that the involvement of Arab and Muslim leaders in Trump’s plan will “inevitably” draw the attention of not only Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, but also hard-line opposition figures like Avigdor Lieberman.
“What matters is not simply the involvement of Arab and Muslim leaders, but which Arab or Muslim states engage, and under what conditions,” he says.
The issue is “bound to remain a subject” of intense political debate in the run-up to the elections, he adds.
Pointing to the coalition members’ mutual dependency, Batu suggests Netanyahu’s grip on power may hold for now.
Apart from Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have “few alternative leaders” with whom they can realistically work in Israeli politics, Batu says.
“While it is true that Netanyahu depends on them, these radical parties also need Netanyahu,” he adds.
With elections inevitable within a year, Batu argues that the cohesion of the coalition is “increasingly losing its significance”.
After all, Netanyahu is likely to exploit his incumbency’s electoral edge, especially if opposition parties offer a temporary lifeline, Batu adds.
That lifeline, however, comes with strings, according to Shehadeh.
“The opposition parties could provide Netanyahu with a ‘safety net’ to pass the plan and bring the war to an end,” he says. But such support for Netanyahu will be limited to securing the plan’s passage and halting the war, he adds.
“At most, it might also include an agreement on the timing of the next elections. But (the opposition will offer) little beyond that,” Shehadeh says.
Batu looks at the possibility of opposition parties allowing Netanyahu some breathing space far less optimistically.
He says that accepting a political safety net from the opposition will leave Netanyahu “at the mercy of rivals who are eager to see him fall”.
“In Israel, everyone understands that once the country enters election mode, the opposition will ruthlessly deploy every card at its disposal,” he says.
Not a clean chit for Netanyahu
Experts say Netanyahu’s public image, battered by corruption trials, failure to bring back hostages, and a senseless war, is unlikely to recover through the peace plan manoeuvre.
“Accepting the plan will not substantially alter Netanyahu’s image within Israeli society. In fact, Netanyahu is not seeking such a change,” says Shehadeh.
Nevertheless, Netanyahu aims to spin it as a personal coup.
“He wants to project himself as someone who successfully influenced President Trump and introduced adjustments to the plan,” Shehadeh says.
Netanyahu’s primary goal is to preserve the loyalty of Likud voters, the broader right-wing base, and a segment of the far-right, he adds.
Batu highlights Netanyahu’s knack for dodging accountability, noting the peace plan’s “significant loopholes”, like the stall after the return of hostages.
“If Netanyahu fails to convince his base of the plan’s legitimacy... he may choose to exploit those loopholes,” Batu says, adding that Netanyahu may recast himself as a defiant patriot if he derails Trump’s plan under pressure.
For Kamel Hawwash, a Palestinian writer and political analyst, the proposed plan is not a path to peace but a repackaged occupation, missing Palestinian consent.
“There is no input from the Palestinians into this,” he tells TRT World.
Hawwash frames Netanyahu’s embrace of Trump’s plan as a desperate bid to mask his own failure in Gaza.
“At the end of the day, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir will present themselves as rejecting this deal because they want a complete reoccupation of Gaza,” he says.
With Hamas still functional and hostages still in captivity, Netanyahu is leaning on global endorsements to sell a plan that entrenches Palestinian subjugation, Hawwash says.
“Israel places no value on Palestinian lives. If it really wanted to end the war, Israel would have stopped already,” he says.
